نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسنده
مدرس گروه معارف اسلامی دانشگاه افسری و تربیت پاسداری امام حسین (ع)
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]
The purpose of this article is to know the possible scenarios in the future of the Islamic Revolution.
The method of this article is prospective research and scenario writing techniques, analysis of trends and drivers, questionnaire and matrix of cross effects have been used. The statistical population includes researchers of Iran's social and political issues and elites, and the sample size was selected using the Cochran formula.
The findings of the research are the identification of favorable and unfavorable scenarios for the future of the Islamic Revolution. In the first scenario, the future of the Islamic revolution will be in the form of subversion, decline and decay. This scenario is undesirable and lacks validity and value due to having descriptors with a negative score and low compatibility value. In the second scenario, the Islamic revolution will be in a stable state and the change towards progress or decline will not be seen. The third scenario is the desirable and expected scenario for the Islamic revolution and will take the path of progress and growth and will become a governmental model. The probability of this scenario is strong and all the descriptors of this scenario have a positive score and its compatibility value is high.
If the factors influencing the Islamic revolution are converged, the future of the Islamic revolution will follow the path of progress and growth due to these factors and will become a governmental model.
کلیدواژهها [English]
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